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On the Internet Growth

The Internet is the Reality, is the Trend, and is the Future

Based on my research, I made the following points in April, 1999. As for the scale:

In the next 10 years, the number of Internet hosts will be doubled every other year (exponential growth rate of 1.4/year).
By year 2010, there will be 1 billion (the current total number of telephones) Internet hosts.
Eventually, the number of Internet hosts will be stabilized at a certain level proportional to the world total population.
However, the Internet, in terms of its total capacity and the total amount of services it carries, will never stop growing.

As for the technologies, there have been happening and will be:

Cable modems, LEO satellite radio modems, and mobile access.
Small, mobile and versatile host devices.
Multimedia applications and services.
E-commerce, E-business and E-corporations.

The Internet growth history data I used for the research was from Hobbes' Internet Timeline v4.1 Š1993-9 by Robert H. Zakon. His site presents a complete and concise timeline of the Internet growth, as well as the comprehensive Internet growth survey data starting from the very beginning of ARPANET in 12/1969 to the most recent. Hobbes' Internet Timeline has been RFC 2235 and FYI 32.

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This page was created and is maintained by Jiangbin Yang,
whom you may contact via the Internet.
May, 1999.